Monday, September 30, 2013

U.S. Government Manufactures 469,000 Jobs

Phony Current Employment Statistics (CES)

“How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg.” ― Abraham Lincoln

- By: Larry Walker, Jr. -

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), via its September 26th CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement, the number of Private Sector Jobs reported in March 2013 was overstated by 136,000, and the number of Government jobs was understated by 12,000. But not to be outdone by a deteriorating economic reality, the BLS eliminated this bad news through a major change in its reporting methodology. After the change, instead of an overstatement of 124,000 nonfarm jobs (-136,000 + 12,000), the BLS will instead be reporting a net gain of 345,000 jobs on its January 2014 employment situation report. It’s magic!

Here’s what the BLS said (emphasis mine), followed by the translation in plain English.

“Each year, employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from State Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus three-tenths of one percent of Total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an upward adjustment to March 2013 Total nonfarm employment of 345,000 (0.3 percent). This revision is impacted by a large non-economic code change in the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) that moves approximately 469,000 in employment from Private households, which is out-of-scope for CES, to the Education and health care services industry, which is in scope. After accounting for this movement, the estimate of the revision to the over-the-year change in CES from March 2012 to March 2013 is a downward revision of 124,000.”

What this means in plain English is that the BLS has once again changed the rules of the game, this time adding an estimated 469,000 Private Household Employees to its accounting of private sector jobs. So what’s wrong with that? Aren’t private household employees considered part of the private sector? The answer is no. Private household employees have never before been considered part of the private sector. The main reasons they have not been are as follows: (1) the BLS has no way of knowing how many household employees really exist, (2) no idea how many are considered full-time, part-time or temporary, and (3) will have virtually no way of tracking changes in the number of such employees on a monthly basis (i.e. its reports are issued monthly).

Unlike private sector businesses, which are surveyed monthly and file quarterly employment reports, private households are not surveyed in the same manner and only file employment reports on an annual basis. According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), although household employees are most commonly associated with child care providers, such as nannies, private household employees also include service providers such as gardeners, cleaning personnel or maids, babysitters, housekeepers, private nurses or home health aids and drivers or chauffeurs. Since such employees have never been included in private sector reporting in the past, the federal government’s employment statistics after January 2014 will be forever inconsistent with every prior period.

The table above, courtesy of the BLS, shows the March 2013 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. I have added a second column showing the changes without the addition of the newly concocted 469,000 private household employees. As you can clearly see, consistent with all prior CES statistics, there are actually 124,000 fewer nonfarm jobs than previously reported.

The bottom line: The number of private sector jobs reported in March 2013 was overstated by 136,000. The number of government jobs reported for the same period was understated by 12,000. That’s reality. Those are the facts. Just like the Bureau of Economic Analysis has been overstating Gross Domestic Product due to changes in its reporting methodology, the BLS has been following suit. As the U.S. economy continues to crumble, aside from QE3, the only tool the federal government has left to combat this new reality is to lie through its teeth. Changing the rules midstream in order to paint a rosy economic scenario through phony statistical reporting is not only dishonest, but reprehensible. The problem with lying is that eventually reality catches up. When there are no longer any warning signs, yet the national economy collapses, who will you blame?

Related:

2013 GDP Growth Rate Closer to -1.75% ― Phony Government Statistics: GDP

Black Unemployment Rate Closer to 37.9% ― Phony Government Statistics, Detroit and Black Americans

Entertainment R&D Boosts Federal GDP Calculation Following Formula Changes

The new GDP methodology: What you need to know: U.S. economy over $500 billion larger due to new definitions

Government Economic Reports: What You've Suspected but Were Afraid to Ask.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

2013 GDP Growth Rate Closer to -1.75%

Phony Government Statistics: GDP

- By: Larry Walker, II -

“There are six things that the Lord hates, seven that are an abomination to him: haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that devises wicked plans, feet that make haste to run to evil, a false witness who breathes out lies, and one who sows discord among brothers.” ~ Proverbs 6:16-19 ~

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the broader measures of economic activity and is the most widely followed business indicator reported by the U.S. government. But according to Economist Walter J. Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, “Upward growth biases built into GDP modeling since the early 1980’s have rendered this important series nearly worthless as an indicator of economic activity... With reported growth moving up and away from economic reality, the primary significance of GDP reporting now is as a political propaganda tool and as a cheerleading prop for Pollyannaish analysts on Wall Street.”

On August 29, 2013, the Federal Government reported that Real Gross Domestic Product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2013 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.1 percent. (The BEA will release its final number for the second quarter 2013 on September 26, 2013, at 8:30 A.M. EDT.)

However, this GDP headline number refers to the most-recent quarter’s annualized quarter-to-quarter rate of change (what that quarter’s percent quarter-to-quarter change would translate into if compounded for four consecutive quarters). This can mean that the latest quarter can be reported with a positive annualized growth rate, while the actual annual rate of change is negative, as was the case for the 3rd quarter of 2009. So is the economy really growing or not?

Note: The chart above, courtesy of ShadowStats.com, shows Annual Growth (Year-to-Year Percent Change). This is not the annualized quarterly rate of change that serves as the headline number for the series.

Shadow GDP

According to Shadow Government Statistics, the annual growth percentage change in GDP for the second quarter 2013, based on Official BEA data, was a mere 1.64%. However, when the aforementioned upward biases, inserted into GDP since 1984, are removed, the annual growth percentage change for the second quarter 2013 was actually more like -1.75%.

In fact, if you study the chart above, in conjunction with source data courtesy of Shadow Government Statistics, other than an anemic growth rate of less than 0.51% for the first, second, and third quarters of 2004, based on pre-1984 methodology, annual GDP growth has been negative ever since the second quarter of 2000.

Even worse, every time the BEA makes a new Pollyannaish change in its GDP reporting methodology, all prior data is restated back to the year 1929. For example, according to Shadow Government Statistics, methodological changes made in 2004 led to increases in previously reported GDP of 2.86% for 1980, and 5.25% for 1990 (see table below).

Unless this nonsense is reigned in, I suspect that in the near future, the Great Depression will be referred to as the Booming 30’s. Should you wish to study this topic further, please take a few moments to read the series authored by Walter J. "John" Williams, “Government Economic Reports: Things You’ve Suspected But Were Afraid To Ask!

The Bottom Line: Nearly every key statistic reported by the Federal Government is a lie. Virtually every word emanating from Washington, DC is a lie. Although the American people may be exceptional, the Government of the United States, as it stands today, has strayed so far from the mark that there will be none other to blame as it seals its own demise.

Related:

Black Unemployment Rate Closer to 37.9%: Phony Government Statistics, Detroit and Black Americans

Entertainment R&D Boosts Federal GDP Calculation Following Formula Changes

The new GDP methodology: What you need to know: U.S. economy over $500 billion larger due to new definitions

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Directed Sunrise

Fire in the Sky, Bomb in the Sound

- Lights, Camera, Action... -

Tybee Island, Atlantic Ocean -- September 2, 2013 ::

On February 5, 1958 the US Air Force lost a 7,600-pound Mark 15 hydrogen bomb in the waters off Tybee Island near Savannah, GA. The Air Force had been running practice exercises at about 2 AM that morning when the B-47 bomber carrying the bomb collided in midair with an F-86 fighter plane.

The F-86 pilot ejected before the collision but the B-47 remained airborne. The pilot requested permission to jettison the bomb to reduce weight and prevent the bomb from exploding during an emergency landing. Permission was granted and the bomb was jettisoned at 7,200 feet while the bomber was traveling about 200 knots. When the bomb struck the sea, no explosion was seen. The B-47 safely landed at the nearby Hunter Air Force Base.

A recovery effort began on February 6, 1958, for what is now known as the Tybee Bomb. The Air Force 2700th Explosive Ordnance Disposal Squadron and 100 Navy personnel equipped with hand held sonar and galvanic drag and cable sweeps mounted a search. On April 16, 1958, the military announced that the search efforts had been unsuccessful.

The Tybee Bomb, allegedly, remains buried here unto this day.

Reference: 1958 Tybee Island Mid-air Collision