Thursday, February 21, 2013

A Different Look at Full-Time Employment


The Rise in Part Time Employment since the Great Recession

- By: Larry Walker, Jr. -

There are five categories among all nonagricultural workers who are officially counted as employed: government workers, private household and private industry workers, the self-employed and unpaid family workers. Among them there are three additional status classifications: those employed part time for economic reasons, part time for noneconomic reasons, and those employed full-time. An analysis of recent trends reveals that the number of part time workers is on the increase, while the number of full-time workers is on the decline.

Before we begin, the aforementioned status classifications of nonagricultural workers are defined as follows:

Part time for economic reasons refers to those who worked 1 to 34 hours during the reference week for a reason such as slack work or unfavorable business conditions, inability to find full-time work, or seasonal declines in demand.

Part time for noneconomic reasons refers to persons who usually work part time for reasons such as childcare problems, family or personal obligations, school or training, retirement or Social Security limits on earnings, and other reasons. Excluded are persons who usually work full time but worked only 1 to 34 hours during the reference week for reasons such as vacations, holidays, illness, and bad weather.

Employed full-time refers to those who worked 35 hours or more during the reference week. This includes workers who have both one full-time and part time job as well as those whose combined hours in two or more part time jobs total at least 35. Are you with me so far? Good.

The chart above displays the number of nonagricultural workers employed part time for economic reasons. It extends from January 1992 through January 2013 for historical context, but what should stand out is the difference between where we are today, versus the month the recession began. In December 2007, at the onset of the Great Recession, 4.6 million workers were employed part time for economic reasons. Yet as of last month, three-and-a-half years after the recession ended, the figure stands at 8.5 million, an increase of 3.9 million, or 83.4%. How’s that for progress?

If measured from the peak of misery, I suppose one could perceive an improving situation, however in more concrete terms, Americans are actually worse off today than at any time since 1993. No amount of words can change the facts.

The second chart (above) shows the number of nonagricultural workers employed part time for noneconomic reasons. This isn’t all that relevant on its lonesome, because it represents those working part time because they want to. However, what is significant is that the number has grown by a staggering 6.3 million since the early 1990’s. In fact, when combined with the previous chart, we find that as of January 2013, a total of 26.7 million out of the 139.7 million officially counted as employed (see chart below), or 19.1%, are merely part-timers. This would be great if our workforce was able to work fewer hours for greater pay, without need of governmental assistance, but we all know that’s not the case.

So what? So, the next chart (above) shows that in July of 2000 there were a total of 135.1 million nonagricultural employees, that the number grew to 145.1 million by July of 2007, and that it has since declined to 139.7 million. Again, if measuring from the peak of misery, it would appear that the employment situation has improved, but in real terms, we have 5.4 million fewer workers today, than we had in 2007. Thus, we are effectively back where we left off at the end of 2005, more than seven years ago. I guess that’s good in the eyes of some, but when discounted for the growth in the number of part time workers the situation is bleak.

In the last chart (above), when the number of nonagricultural workers employed part time, both for economic and noneconomic reasons, is subtracted from the total employment level, we find that the number of full-time workers has declined from 123.1 million in July 2007, to 112.9 million in January 2013. In other words, we currently have 10.1 million fewer full-time workers than existed at the pre-recession peak. Also notable is the fact that the number of full-time jobs in existence today, 112.9 million, is fewer than the 115.9 million which existed in July of 2000, more than a decade ago.

I suppose one could find a way to twist these numbers into a bright and rosy future, that is if one has no sense of where we have been or where we are headed, but since government spending is currently twice what it was just a decade ago, and politicians are frantically grasping to fill a gap, which for all of their efforts has merely widened, I fail to comprehend their hardheadedness.

According to POTUS, “We’ve created 6 million new jobs under my administration.” But according to reality, we currently have 5.4 million fewer workers than we had just over five years ago, 10.1 million fewer full-time workers, and 3.9 million more are employed part time for economic reasons. So you tried your plan, and it failed, and the employment situation won’t improve until government stops playing enabler, gets out of the way, and lets God reign.

“Without God there is no recovery, only disappointing substitutions and repeated failures.” ~ Friend of Bill’s

The data presented in this post was obtained through the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly sample survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

References:

My Worksheets: Part Time Workers for Web

A Different Look at Part-time Employment | Bureau of Labor Statistics

Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Paranoid LA Cops: Shoot first, use brain never.

- By: Larry Walker II -

“Two women who were shot by Los Angeles police in Torrance early Thursday during a massive manhunt for an ex-LAPD officer were delivering newspapers, sources said.” One of the victims was shot in her hand, which was likely raised; the other in the back, classic.

Riddle the vehicle with bullets first; find out whether you got the stocky black male suspect or a couple of innocent women later. Did they even think to run a check on the vehicle’s tag first, or are they really that stupid? Was the tag legitimate? Did the passenger(s) even remotely resemble the suspect’s description? Did the tip come from a legitimate source? LAPD wants this guy dead so bad that they are behaving like rabid dogs; corybantic, crazed, demented, desperate, enraged, fierce, and fit to be tied.

Hundreds of LA cops have taken to the streets and hills armed with assault weapons and God knows what else, this time in search of one of their own. Does it really take hundreds of cops to find one suspect? Not hardly. That is unless 90% of the populace is on his side. Has the LAPD ever heard of intelligence? Are they unfamiliar with the word, investigation? How much intelligence went into riddling the first blue truck spotted, more or less matching the suspect’s vehicle description, with 33 bullets injuring two innocent news delivery women?

What about the guy in the following video? Man Mistaken For Manhunt Suspect.

View more videos at: http://nbclosangeles.com.

One wrong move and he would have been dead. Some anonymous informant called the police and said, “He’s right here, sitting in the parking lot,” and LAPD raced over threatening the very life of a stocky baldheaded black man. This guy is lucky to still be breathing. If you look anything like the suspect, you better get the hell out of Southern California, and even if you’re not anywhere near Los Angeles, and there’s no resemblance whatsoever, your safety is in jeopardy.

This madness has to stop before dozens of innocents are injured or murdered. The national media has just created a mass panic and now every bald stocky black man in America is a suspect. Hey, don’t take this lightly, they’re already saying that the rogue cop could be anywhere, aren’t they? He could have been in my office this morning. He could be any bald stocky black man attempting to board a bus, train, plane, or embarking on a cross-country drive.

Since he’s not really a public threat, but just a thorn in the side of what for all we know is a corrupt police force, maybe it’s time for the Feds to step in and begin conducting a proper investigation. I would like to see this guy given the opportunity to turn himself in, and receive a fair trial. If he did what they say he did, he should take the rap and do the time. And likewise, if the officers he named in his manifesto are guilty of what he accuses, they should also take the rap and do time. At this point, we really don’t know victim from villain. If the suspect dies, we may never know the truth.

The public should be less afraid of the suspect than those conducting the massive manhunt. At this point, I’m less afraid of Dorner than the LAPD. The real threat is allowing hundreds of cops to menace the countryside, armed with assault weapons, ready to riddle any bald stocky black man, or anyone else for that matter, with as many bullets as possible. It kind of makes the concept of a national gun control policy nothing but a ruse. You want to take away the rights of law abiding citizens, while government law enforcement officers are left virtually unchecked? No, that’s not how this works.

LAPD should get a clue. You’ve just taken the bait, hook line and sinker. You’re guilty of exactly what your former associate and accuser states: running around like you own the world, bullying, racial profiling, using the N-word, and pointing guns at and shooting innocents; instilling fear in the public you’re supposed to serve. I have much respect for cops who know their role and uphold the law and the Constitution, but I hold in contempt any sorry mutt who races to a scene and unloads his/her weapon without so much as a thread of evidence. Perhaps it’s time for the LAPD to clean house.